China's port throughput growth to slow in 2024 amid weak demand: Fitch

Source:China Sport ShowRelease time:27-Feb-2024Clicks:

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China’s port throughput growth may slow in 2024, with the risk of a decline, amid weak external demand and manufacturing globally, according to Fitch Ratings.

Cargo and container throughput at China’s eight major seaports rose by 4 per cent and 6 per cent y-o-y, respectively, in the fourth quarter (Q4) of fiscal 2023 (FY23). Fitch believes the growth was driven by new shipping lines, additional container capacity, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the ramp-up of multimodal transport, and an increase in transported containers via the China-Europe Railway.

China’s export decline slowed to 3 per cent y-o-y in Q4FY23, from 11 per cent in Q3FY23. Exports to ASEAN and the EU fell by 9.3 per cent and 9.7 per cent in Q4FY23, respectively, after the 17.0 per cent and 17.5 per cent drop in Q3FY23. The decline in exports to the US also eased to 3 per cent in Q4FY23, from 14.3 per cent in Q3FY23. The decline in ASEAN, EU and US demand was tempered by resilient exports to Russia, which jumped by 24 per cent in Q4FY23, Fitch said in a press release.

The Red Sea conflict may continue to disrupt global supply chains in 2024, but the volume via the New Western Land-Sea Corridor, RCEP, China-Europe Railway and sea-river transport will provide a cushion for China’s throughput growth.