Global trade wanes further in Dec 2023: S&P Global Market Intelligence

Source:China Sport ShowRelease time:17-Jan-2024Clicks:

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The worldwide purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicated a further deterioration of global trade in December last year, thereby extending the sequence of decline to 22 months.

The rate of contraction remained moderate, despite picking up from November, with the seasonally adjusted PMI new export orders index posting 48.3, down from 48.5. The latest reading also matched the 2023 average, Jingyi Pan, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote on the company website.

Consumer goods notably recorded the slowest decline in new export orders since March 2023, resulting in only a marginal deterioration.

By broad region, both developed and emerging markets recorded lower trade activity, extending the sequence of broad-based deterioration to six months. That said, the rate of decline in emerging markets was the softest since October and marginal overall.

Measured across both goods and services, trade deteriorated across all the top 10 economies with the exception of India.

Among the developed markets tracked, the EU remained the worst performer at the end of 2023, as its trade downturn extended to 22 months. Furthermore, the rate of decline accelerated from November to rise above the rolling 12-month average.

Incoming new orders from abroad fell especially sharply in France and Germany, with both manufacturing and service sectors reporting reduced sales from abroad. Overall, the EU recorded sharper declines in goods trade than the exchange of services.

Canada followed the EU in likewise reporting a solid deterioration in trade conditions in December. The United Kingdom and Japan meanwhile saw comparatively mild declines in goods trade in December.

For the United States, a renewed deterioration in both the manufacturing and service sectors were observed in December, though both export declines were slight in nature.

India was the only economy recording improvements in trade conditions among the four major emerging markets—Brazil, India, China and Russia. The overall rate of emerging market export growth was the slowest in six months, despite remaining substantial.

Russia and China both recorded mild declines in new export orders in the latest survey period, Pan wrote.

Brazil ranked last among both the emerging and developed economies tracked in December, with new export orders continuing to decline at a sharp rate, little changed from November.