Global GDP growth estimated at 2.6% in 2024: Economic Experts Survey

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Average global GDP growth is projected to be at 2.6 per cent in 2024, according to Economic Experts Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023, conducted by the ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. This projection aligns closely with the previous year's growth rate of 2.7 per cent.

 

Experts from Africa and Asia are particularly optimistic, expecting high growth rates of 3.6 per cent for each region in 2024. However, forecasts for Europe and America are more cautious, with expected growth rates of 1.9 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.

 

The survey indicates that the fastest-growing sub-regions in 2024 will be Western Africa and South-Eastern Asia, with projected growth rates of 4.4 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively. In contrast, Northern and Western Europe are expected to lag behind, with Northern Europe growing at 1.4 per cent and Western Europe at just 1.1 per cent.

 

Specific European countries such as Sweden, Finland, the UK, and Germany are predicted to have particularly low growth rates, ranging from 0.4 per cent to 0.6 per cent. On the other hand, stronger increases are expected for Spain (2 per cent), Poland (2.8 per cent), Ireland (2.8 per cent), and Iceland (3.3 per cent), as per the survey.

 

In terms of medium- and long-term growth, Africa and Asia continue to lead with expected rates of over 4 per cent. North, Central, and South America have lower forecasts, with growth rates of 2.6 per cent and 3 per cent for 2025 and 2027. Europe's medium- (2.3 per cent) and long-term growth (2.7 per cent) are projected to be below the global average of the last decade. Germany is expected to experience moderate growth in the medium to long term, with rates of 1.2 per cent in 2025 and 1.5 per cent in 2027. The US, in contrast, anticipates consistent growth rates of 2.4 per cent in 2024, 2025, and 2027.